Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.011602 0.013108 0.014737 0.016631 0.018771 0.021118 0.023885
2025-11-23 0.009045 0.011082 0.013470 0.016479 0.020172 0.024562 0.030184
2025-11-30 0.007855 0.010174 0.013046 0.016872 0.021841 0.028087 0.036557
2025-12-07 0.006660 0.009024 0.012089 0.016358 0.022165 0.029809 0.040667
2025-12-14 0.005836 0.008223 0.011440 0.016101 0.022701 0.031739 0.045112
2025-12-21 0.005111 0.007457 0.010729 0.015640 0.022846 0.033074 0.048767
2025-12-28 0.004804 0.007237 0.010743 0.016175 0.024415 0.036501 0.055681
2026-01-04 0.004481 0.006953 0.010622 0.016480 0.025641 0.039494 0.062176
2026-01-11 0.004221 0.006734 0.010568 0.016863 0.026994 0.042758 0.069338
2026-01-18 0.003878 0.006349 0.010218 0.016738 0.027518 0.044748 0.074611
2026-01-25 0.003599 0.006040 0.009954 0.016719 0.028192 0.047004 0.080474
2026-02-01 0.003302 0.005672 0.009562 0.016445 0.028406 0.048497 0.085147
2026-02-08 0.003116 0.005480 0.009453 0.016652 0.029473 0.051544 0.092834
2026-02-15 0.002887 0.005194 0.009160 0.016513 0.029925 0.053567 0.098892
2026-02-22 0.002767 0.005088 0.009169 0.016906 0.031349 0.057403 0.108560
2026-03-01 0.002520 0.004733 0.008702 0.016391 0.031059 0.058102 0.112411
2026-03-08 0.002336 0.004475 0.008391 0.016134 0.031221 0.059632 0.117951
2026-03-15 0.002141 0.004181 0.007991 0.015672 0.030945 0.060300 0.121842
2026-03-22 0.002089 0.004160 0.008102 0.016208 0.032659 0.064929 0.134031
2026-03-29 0.002012 0.004083 0.008098 0.016514 0.033932 0.068782 0.144952
2026-04-05 0.001949 0.004028 0.008132 0.016897 0.035390 0.073113 0.157228
2026-04-12 0.001836 0.003861 0.007928 0.016772 0.035779 0.075274 0.165052
2026-04-19 0.001742 0.003726 0.007781 0.016753 0.036387 0.077930 0.174163